Predator Geographical Profiling System Psycho-Geographical Profiling Psycho-Geographical Profiling is concerned with the spatial analysis and psychological behavioral patterns of criminals. The technique employs a variety of methods, including distance to crime research, demographical analysis, environmental psychology, landscape analysis, geographical information systems, point pattern analysis, crime site residual analysis, and psychological criminal profiling. This process has both quantitative and qualitative (landscape analysis) dimensions to its application. Moreover, GPA seems to be a particular effective method for the needs of police investigators attempting to solve complex serial crimes. The technique examines the spatial data connected to a series of crime sites and in this study, more specifically, victims' body dump sites and point of fatal encounter sites.

• Geographical Profiling Cases
• Methodology For Evaluating Outcomes

Landscape Analysis - While several sciences specialize in such matters as crime-scene analysis, none better than geography in conjunction with environmental psychology can analyze the site and situation of the entire crime. Qualities of places and the relations among place are stock-in-trade for geographers. While the quantitative methods, at first at least, aim at general patterns of crimes in the aggregate, the qualitative method used here aims at reconnecting the known facets of the crimes to the actual landscape. In this phase, geo-forensic analysis attempts to reconstruct the course of travel of the killer and the victim from before the crime until well after it.

Every reasonable effort is made to lay down a complete trail for each person in the crime (Newton, 1985). The application of geographic predication is best described by Harries (1980 p: 120) 'Prediction, depending on the level of its reliability, may be the most valuable end product of any social science investigation. Even some success in predication is often worthwhile, since it creates an awareness of tendencies within a system, without necessarily specifying either the parameters of those tendencies or underlying causes.' Geographical Profiling does not 'solve' murder cases.

GeoProfile: Developing and establishing the reliability of a new geographic profiling software system. A methodology for evaluating geographic profiling software. Evaluation of profiling methods and Investigative Procedures* Richard Z. Gore, PhD Professor Emeritus UMASS Lowell Richard_Gore@uml.edu Introduction The NIJ charged a committee to come up with recommendations (Rich & Shively, 2004) for the establishment of performance measures to evaluate Geographical profiling software.

Rather the method provides an additional avenue of scientific investigation that, with the many other forensic specialties, may provide some help for the investigation of a serial killing. The actual search for the killer remains completely in the orbit of the sworn. The geo-forensic techniques seem to provide an additional perspective that may assist police during the investigation of a serial murder in which bodies of victims are scattered over a large geographical area. The method seems also to be able to indicate that a sequence of murders belong in one serial, even when the police deny such an interpretation.

Geographical Profiling may also be used to assist a defendant accused of one or more murders in a probable serial murder if his personal geography, because of the route patterns, made him logically unable to have committed the other murder in the apparent serial murder. The theories put forth in this research are in their infancy and further research is needed to test whether the applications are valid and robust. In the nonce, geographical pattern analysis of serial murder has so far confirmed the rationality and indeed the ordinariness of the killer. Predator is Trade Mark under the U.S. And International laws. Any unauthorized use of this written material or aspects of Predator program is prohibited by law and is punishable.

Strengths of the Predator geographical profiling model compared to Rossmo's model and Canter's Dragnet system. 1: Predator does not assume that the crime area is only circular but rather looks at the locations from all angular positions.

The Predator function calculates the two sides of two points using the Arctangent function (Atn). Neither Rossmo's model or Dragnet considers the angles of crimes. On going research of 107 U.S. Serial killers by Maurice Godwin, Ph.D. Shows that crime locations of serial killers fall somewhere between a 90 and 145 degrees. Data on which the Dragnet System is based were collected from 'true-crime' magazines and books, which are not reliable sources. 2: The Predator does not assume a 'buffer zone' but does, however, make allowances for buffer zones, especially when analyzing the victims' abduction sites.

The is contrary to the Dragnet that does not make allowances for buffer zones. 3: The Predator uses the more reliable UTM coordinates for plotting the crime locations. 4: The Predator uses the actual discrete crime locations along with several distance-decay functions to geographically profile the crime series. Predator does not use the rather aggregated 'mean inter-point distance' (MDS) that PlobPlot uses. Dragnet assumes that the MID gives equal weight to all distances, however, this is unlikely the case since it averages the distances even before the analysis is carried out.

Rather than rely on distances, the Predator uses the actual UTM coordinates to represent the crime locations. 5: Such theoretical methods as the Dragnet employ presumptuous mean inter-point distances between crime locations that the creators assume represents a 'monotonous plain,' a theoretical surface only analogously related to the actual surface of the earth. To be sure, their monotonous plain lacks rivers, cliffs, streets, shopping centers, and so forth.

However, the Predator Model employs two location-allocation theories. Firstly, it employs a method that looks at the location of central facilities and the allocation of flows to them. Such a method projects, theoretically, the probable trips of the offender to the center. Secondly, the Predator employs an analysis of a dispersing offender and reverses the directional assumption of the location-allocation model, while also keeping the assumptions of a monotonous plain and of optimization. Rather than assuming that the victim travels to the offender's home-base, it assumes that the offender travels outward from his or her home, so the 'allocation of flows' is 'from' rather than 'to' the center. This process allows the criminal's spatial movements to be modeled from all directions; no matter if they are moving in or out. Note: Some have criticized me for not participating in a study that involved evaluating the methodology of various geographical profiling software programs back in 2004.

In my opinion this study was biased from the start based on previous supporting comments from some of the participates on software that was to be evaluated. I actually proposed to the researchers a better alternative for evaluating the various software programs.

I suggested that we pick an unsolved serial murder case where the victims were known to be linked to one offender for example through DNA or fingerprints. Then each owner of the software program would be provided the same exact geocoding information on crime locations associated with the unsolved murders. We then would submitted our results (maps) of the predicted offender's home anchor point to one researcher who would then maintain those results until the case is solved. Once the case was solved we then could review the geographical profiling results previously submitted to see whose predicted anchor point was the closest to the killer's home base location. However, I never heard back from those individuals carrying out the 2004 evaluation. COPYRIGHT ( 2011 ): All rights reserved. No part of this may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from Dr.

Maurice Godwin.

Introduction Law enforcement agencies are always searching for better ways to identify and apprehend serial offenders, who commit disproportionately more crimes (Canela-Cacho, Blumstein, & Cohen, 1997). Geographic profiling is a suspect prioritization method that can assist with this process. Geographic profiling is a tool that is especially suited for crime analysts as they are often already familiar with analytical techniques and the creation of crime maps. This article outlines the background of geographic profiling, discusses training in the methodology, and concludes with a case example that shows the application of geographic profiling in an operational case. Background Geographic profiling is the process of determining the most probable area of an offender’s base of activities through an analysis of his or her crime locations (Rossmo, 2000). It is used most often in investigations of serial crimes. This technology assists law enforcement by focusing limited resources, resulting in the apprehension of the offender faster with less time spent and resources expended, and fewer victims.

In large investigations, these savings can be significant (Velarde, 2004). Research has shown that the most important influence on where criminals offend is where they go during their non-criminal activities (Bennett & Wright, 1984). This can be represented through a mathematical model. Geographic profiling focuses the search for suspects using a combination of environmental criminology theory, research on offender spatial behavior, and mathematics, which has been incorporated into geographic profiling software called Rigel by Environmental Criminology Research Inc. Rigel uses an algorithm called criminal geographic targeting (CGT) to create a geo-profile, a two-dimensional probability surface that overlays on a street map and shows the most probable areas for the offender’s base (Rossmo, 2013). The geo-profile map normally uses color to represent probability.

While this may initially look similar to a hot-spot map of the crimes, it is actually showing different information: where the offender is likely based rather than where they commit their crimes. A geographic profile is used to prioritize suspects based on their address information. Suspects are investigated in the order of prioritization (MacKay, 1999). In some serial crime cases, the number of known suspects can be in the hundreds or thousands, and a geographic profile can help police manage this information (Rossmo, 2012). There are a variety of investigative strategies that can be employed once a geographic profile has been prepared (Rossmo, 2013). Analysts can use a geographic profile to prioritize records the police department already has access to, such as arrest records, field interviews, and jail booking sheets.

These files often include the offender’s address, physical description, and prior arrest charges. Other databases may also be used in conjunction with a profile, such as parole, probation, and motor vehicle registration databases (Rossmo, 2006). A geographic profile can also be used to prioritize areas for directed police patrols or area canvasses.

This strategy can be especially effective if the offender is operating during a narrow time period. The profile can be used to provide specific information to local area residents and neighborhood watch groups. Police may also want to use the profile to direct community mailings and/or conduct a media campaign (Rossmo & Velarde, 2008).

Finally, geographic profiles can be used for the placement of specific tools that gather information about people or vehicles that pass through an area, such as pole cameras or license plate readers. The data obtained from the placement of these tools can be reviewed and investigated by detectives.

Training The form of geographic profiling used by crime analysts and detectives is called Geographic Profiling Analysis (GPA). GPA training is currently available nationally and internationally through various universities and police agencies. In some states, such as California, GPA training is reimbursable to law enforcement agencies through state Peace Officer Standards and Training (POST) funds. GPA courses provide an overview of the geography of crime, crime linkage, environmental criminology, and the operational aspects of geographic profiling for property crime. Students learn to identify offender behavioral patterns, analyze crime series for spatial-temporal patterns, and create maps and profiles using geographic profiling software. The training program includes lecture-style learning, group, solo and field exercises, hands-on activities, and evaluation/mentorship.

Students who take GPA training are typically crime analysts and property crime investigators (Velarde, 2004). Implementation of GPA by law enforcement is achieved through the training of agency personnel and the acquisition of geographic profiling software. Students are encouraged to complete profiles on as many cases as possible during their mentorship period, and to brief both command staff and officers/detectives as to the concepts of GPA and its potential use in the criminal investigative process (Velarde & Cooper, 2006). Application The Irvine (California) Police Department (IPD) has used geographic profiling successfully for both local and outside agency cases.

One case in which geographic profiling was effectively used by IPD is discussed below. From 2010 to 2011, the City of Irvine experienced several arsons that IPD detectives believed were set by a single serial offender. The crimes were difficult to solve as there were no witnesses and most of the physical evidence had been consumed in the fires.

In April 2011, IPD’s Crime Analysis Unit (CAU) was asked to provide an analysis of the series, including maps of the fires, a next-crime forecast, and a geographic profile. The fires were occurring during the early morning hours in a residential neighborhood. The offender was burning car covers and flags, as well as using items of opportunity such as pizza boxes to set trash dumpsters on fire. The offender showed a lack of criminal sophistication; the crimes were close together, suggesting the offender was likely walking to the crime locations. Using Rigel, Irvine analysts created a geographic profile for this case. The profile identified a highly populated residential neighborhood as the most probable area for the offender base, and analysts determined that this base was likely to be the offender’s home.

Subjects living in the area whom had previously been arrested, had police contact, and/or were registered for arson were reviewed, however this failed to identify the offender. DNA swabbing of unburned material was conducted, and the Orange County Sheriff’s Department DNA laboratory determined that three pieces of evidence contained genetic material from the same person, a female. This was the first physical evidence in the investigation and it was helpful because any suspect who was identified in the investigation could now be compared to the scene DNA. A meeting with detectives and crime analysts was held to determine a case strategy.

It was decided the best use of resources would be to try to intercept the offender as she hunted for her next target. The geographic profile outlined an interception area, and the crime forecast, based on descriptive statistics of the previous arsons, provided the most likely day of week and time of day for the offender’s future activity. This information was used to deploy undercover officers. After several weeks of surveillance, one of the detectives saw a woman walking her dog as she entered a nearby elementary school during the early morning hours.

When the detective saw smoke coming from behind a pillar at the school, he realized this woman was the serial arsonist. The detective put out the fire and followed the woman to her home where she was arrested. Her home was in the peak area of the geographic profile (marked by a blue square on the map). Conclusion While it does not directly solve cases, geographic profiling can spatially focus an investigation and help manage large volumes of information.

It is well suited for crime analysts because of their experience using analytical techniques and generating maps. Through the acquisition of GPA training and geographic profiling software, a law enforcement agency can add an important tool to help in their investigation of serial crime. References Bennett, T., & Wright, R. Burglars on burglary: Prevention and the offender.

Aldershot, Hants: Gower. Canela-Cacho, J. A., Blumstein, A., & Cohen, J. Relationship between the offending frequency (l) of imprisoned and free offenders. Criminology, 35, 133-175. (1999, December).

Geographic profiling: A new tool for law enforcement. The Police Chief, pp. Geographic profiling. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. Recent developments in geographic profiling. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 6, 144-150. Geographic profiling.

Bruinsma & D. Weisburd (Eds.), Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice (pp. New York: Springer. K., & Velarde, L. Geographic profiling analysis: Principles, methods, and applications.

Geographical Profiling Cases

Tompson (Eds.), Crime mapping case studies: Practice and research (pp. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. (2004, April). Applying geographic profiling to property crimes: The geographic profiling analyst program. Paper presented at the Crime Mapping Research Conference, Boston, MA. Velarde, L., & Cooper, J.

Geographic profiling analysis: Implementation assessment and review. Unpublished manuscript, Irvine Police Department, Irvine, CA.

Methodology For Evaluating Outcomes

Weiss, J., & Davis, M. (2004, December). Geographic profiling finds serial criminals. Law and Order, pp.